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Our intuition on how the world works could well be wrong. We are surprised when new competitors burst on the scene, or businesses protected by large and deep moats find their defenses easily breached, or vast new markets are conjured from nothing. Trend lines resemble saw-tooth mountain ridges.
The world not only feels different. The data tell us it is different. Based on years of research by the directors of the McKinsey Global Institute, No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Forces Breaking all the Trends is a timely and important analysis of how we need to reset our intuition as a result of four forces colliding and transforming the global economy: the rise of emerging markets, the accelerating impact of technology on the natural forces of market competition, an aging world population, and accelerating flows of trade, capital and people.
Our intuitions formed during a uniquely benign period for the world economy—often termed the Great Moderation. Asset prices were rising, cost of capital was falling, labour and resources were abundant, and generation after generation was growing up more prosperous than their parents.
But the Great Moderation has gone. The cost of capital may rise. The price of everything from grain to steel may become more volatile. The world’s labor force could shrink. Individuals, particularly those with low job skills, are at risk of growing up poorer than their parents.
What sets No Ordinary Disruption apart is depth of analysis combined with lively writing informed by surprising, memorable insights that enable us to quickly grasp the disruptive forces at work. For evidence of the shift to emerging markets, consider the startling fact that, by 2025, a single regional city in China—Tianjin—will have a GDP equal to that of the Sweden, of that, in the decades ahead, half of the world’s economic growth will come
from 440 cities including Kumasi in Ghana or Santa Carina in Brazil that most executives today would be hard-pressed to locate on a map.
What we are now seeing is no ordinary disruption but the new facts of business life— facts that require executives and leaders at all levels to reset their operating assumptions and management intuition.
- Sales Rank: #387820 in Books
- Model: 31928140
- Published on: 2015-05-12
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.40" h x 1.30" w x 6.40" l, .0 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 288 pages
Review
A BookPal Best Business Book of 2015
“Danger! Opportunity! In this snack from the business-class galley, three McKinsey Global Institute researchers serve up a view of a future that ‘presents difficult, often existential challenges to leaders of companies, organizations, cities, and countries.’… Libertarians may squall, but investors just beginning to look at emerging market trends may find value in this book.” –Kirkus Reviews
“An intriguing work for those interested in the business impacts of globalization.” –Library Journal
“What’s unique is how the book ties these four major forces together in a book that’s packed with insights and anecdotes while remaining free of management-speak…What this book excels at is quickly summarizing these forces and the challenges they pose to businesses and policy makers. And using real-world examples to illustrate these forces.” –Global by Design
“Richard Dobbs, James Manyika and Jonathan Woetzel offer a stimulating analysis of the major trends that might make or break nations. By combining data from disparate fields, they make a compelling argument about the disruptive forces that are re-shaping the world before our eyes.” –BusinessWorld
“A timely and important analysis of how we need to reset our intuition as a result of four forces colliding and transforming the global economy...What sets No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends apart is depth of analysis combined with lively writing informed by surprising, memorable insights that enable us to quickly grasp the disruptive forces at work.” –ValueWalk
“As a new book, titled No Ordinary Disruption, based on research by the directors of the McKinsey Global Institute, notes: ‘A radically different world is forming. The operating system of the world is being rewritten even as we speak. It doesn’t come in a splashy new release. It evolves, unfolds, and often explodes.’ Authors Richard Dobbs, James Manyika and Jonathan Woetzel add: ‘Technology–from the printing press to the steam engine and the Internet–has always been a great force in overturning the status quo. The difference today is the sheer ubiquity of the technology in our lives and the speed of the change.’” –Singapore Straits Times
"No Ordinary Disruption is no ordinary management book. Everyone in and around business and technology has heard about disruption for awhile now, but the way Dobbs, Manyika and Woetzel dissect the phenomenon and give it meaning is truly new and exciting. They not only provide a prescient diagnosis of what's to come, but also offer compelling thoughts on how we succeed in a world that's moving faster and faster every day. The massive changes they describe can be overwhelming, but they do a remarkable job of inspiring us to confront them with intellect, humanity, and a profound optimism about our future." –Eric Schmidt,Google Executive Chairman
"A compelling and rigorous illustration of how the pace of change in the last two decades has grown by orders of magnitude. Leaders from all spheres must now face up to these developments, and change their old models and processes for decision-making to handle the massive increase in shorter term volatility -- while still keeping their eyes on the longer term. Important reading for policy-makers, financiers, industrialists and NGOs interested in updating their worldview and making it fit for modern purpose." –Andrew Mackenzie,CEO of BHP Billiton
“No one can know the future. But No Ordinary Disruption takes a very good shot. By reading this book you can prepare for what the future will bring. Everyone with responsibility for a part of the future should carefully consider its analysis.” -Lawrence H. Summers, former Treasury Secretary
"The world is getting more connected, and thus more complex. New strategies are necessary for a networked age. No Ordinary Disruption is an excellent primer in how to think strategically about the transformational role of technology and the accelerating global flows of goods, capital, and talent -- and how to prepare yourself for a future that will be marked by relentless change and massive opportunity. I highly recommend this book.” -Reid Hoffman, co-founder/chairman of LinkedIn
About the Author
Richard Dobbs, James Manyika, and Jonathan Woetzel are the directors of the McKinsey Global Institute, the business and economics arm of the global management consulting firm McKinsey & Company.
Richard Dobbs, based in London, has led research on global economic trends, including urbanization, resource markets, capital markets, lifestyle diseases, productivity, and growth. He is a coauthor of Value: The Four Cornerstones of Corporate Finance and has taught at the Said Business School at Oxford University.
Dr. James Manyika, based in Silicon Valley since 1994, has led research on the global economy, disruptive technologies, the digital economy, and productivity. He is the author of a book on robotics as well as technical and business articles. He was appointed by President Obama as the vice chair of the President’s Global Development Council. He is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and is on advisory boards at Harvard, UC Berkeley, and Oxford, where he was a research fellow.
Dr. Jonathan Woetzel, based in China since 1985, has led research on urbanization, the global economy, sustainability, and productivity. He also leads McKinsey’s Cities Special Initiative and is cochair of the Urban China Initiative. He has authored four books on China, most recently The One Hour China Book, and is an adjunct professor at the China-European International Business School.
Most helpful customer reviews
43 of 45 people found the following review helpful.
Disappointingly ordinary in its descriptions
By Mark P. McDonald
McKinsey seeks to pull together all of the forces that seek to pull apart business strategies. The result is a surprisingly flat description that rehashes past McKinsey research reports than offer a new way to look at the world and the relevance of strategic choices and investments. The four trends are below:
Trend 1: The locus of economic activity is shifting to emerging markets like China, India, Asia and Africa
Trend 2: Technology's impact on the economy is accelerating
Trend 3: Demographics, the aging of the population is shifting demands
Trend 4: Connectedness as trade, capital, people and information flow across national boarders
Each trend is treated in a formulaic way, following a standard structure with slavish adherence. You can extract the books outline which should give you and idea of the limitations of the book's story telling or information value.
Overall, this book is filled with factoids and other little nuggets, many previously published by McKinsey's Global Institute. So if you are looking for new insight, you will not find it here. The discussions of each trend are interesting in their own ways, but the prose is rather bland and expository rather than telling an engaging story that drives understanding or action.
The book's prescriptions are surprisingly simple -- mostly around do better -- rather thank do things differently.
Overall not recommended if you are looking for new ideas. It may be helpful for others to re-enforce their strategic decisions, particularly if those decisions are not too radical.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Slower than I expected
By Maurizio Paganini
There are plenty of interesting examples and the overall analysis is interesting, but the pace is too slow and often unengaging. Striving to make the point sink well, too much repetition is used.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
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By A Customer
Good read with a lot of insights that in principle are well-known, but good to have a summary with well documented stories. Will read again.
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